Ever since Donald Trump was elected as president of the United States of America there had been allegations of Russians influencing the election results. The US intelligence services believe Russia ordered cyber-attacks on the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Hillary Clinton’s campaign and other political organizations, in an attempt to influence the election in favor of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Things were escalated when the former US president Barak Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats as retaliation for the alleged Russian intervention with the presidential elections. It was expected that US diplomats in Russia would suffer the same treatment but that did not happen and Putin showed the political acumen for which he is known. It came as shock to many but not for Donald Trump who tweeted “Great move on delay- I always knew he was very smart!”. But now as the Obamas have said good-bye to the white house, will the Russian-US relations improve as Donald Trump swore in as the 45th president of USA? Very less can be said about the future but one can only hope for the relations to improve.
Could Trump lift sanctions on Russia?
The Russian military intervention in Ukraine which began in late February 2014 and led to the annexation of Crimea forced a number of world governments to ban business from Russia. United States of America was quick to lead the charge against Russia along with European Union to place sanctions. However, Russia also responded and banned import of food products to many western countries including United States of America, Norway, European Union, Canada and Australia. The sanctions on Russia have disrupted the economy of the neo-soviet state. It led to the collapse of Russian ruble and the financial crisis. Not only Russia was affected the effect on many European states was devastating. It’s assumed that the losses piled up to 100 billion Euros. As a pro-Russian president is now the head-of-state of USA things are expected to change. To improve relationship with Russia it might require the United States to drop its opposition to the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea, and the lifting of sanctions against top Russian officials to punish the land grab from Ukraine. Indeed, this step would increase the suspicion of Trump-Putin rigging the elections but would be significant in improving bilateral ties. Trump would not even have to consult with US allies over lifting sanctions. He could accomplish that by a pen stroke since they were mandated by Obama in a series of executive orders. There is no less chance that Trump may flip-flop from his stand on Russia and his policies would be the result of geo-political and strategic considerations that influence the Russian-US ties.
Syria: The battleground
The US has anti-Assad stand. It has asked Assad to step down from power both because of the alleged human rights violations committed under his watch. The primary objective of US in Syria is to overthrow the president Bashar al-Assad rather than destroying ISIS. Trump who is known for his political incorrectness wants to destroy radical Islamic terrorism. It is well known US support for the rebels who are against al-Assad. The central focus of Trump’s work to improve the US relationship with Russia could come in the Middle East, where Trump has said the US needs to urgently reevaluate its strategy in fighting ISIS. Ceding that point would ensure Russia can preserve a key ally in the region, strengthening its influence in the Middle East. Many times Trump criticized the US’s backing of moderate rebels fighting the Syrian regime and suggested it is more important to fight ISIS alongside Russia than pushing for the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Trump has sought to simplify the US’s role in the conflict in Syria, boiling down the campaign to destroying ISIS and making everything else secondary to that objective. Trump’s support for Syrian president would damage America’s standing and popular support throughout the Middle East, particularly among allies who have decried the Syrian government’s slaughter of tens of thousands of civilians. Also the Russians have gained influence in recent years through its support of the Iranian regime, which have gained foothold in Iraq recently.
A friendly US relationship with Russia could allow Moscow to rebuild the Cold War-era influence that the US spent decades deflating. It would lead to multi-polar world rather than a world dominated by a superpower. The future lies interesting as the Trump era has just begun.
